Michel Gurfinkiel

In voting overwhelmingly for the Democrats on November 7, Jewish American voters rejected the administration of George W. Bush, the most pro-Jewish and pro-Israel team that has ever been established in Washington.

Experts discuss the exact size of the vote. The number given by the National Jewish Democratic Council -- 87% of votes for the Democrats, only 12% for the Republicans -- isn't credible. That given by the Republican Jewish Coalition, based on exit polls — more than 70% for the Democrats, 27% for the Republicans — seems closer to reality. But the overall result in both cases is the same: at least two thirds of Jewish Americans refused to support the President. They preferred a Democratic Party of whose members only 43%, according to an NBC/Wall Street Journal poll published in July, describe themselves as more favorable to Israel than to the Arabs, compared to a Republican Party in which support for the Jewish state, according to the same poll, was 84%.

How do we explain this behavior?

First the weight of habit. Jews have been voting Democratic for a hundred years. It is sometimes more difficult to change your political opinion than to change your sex.

But another factor is important: the religious affiliation of American Jews. The more they are liberal in religious matters, the more they support the Democrats. The more they are Orthodox or Conservative, the more they lean toward the Republicans. Twenty three percent of liberal or Reform Jews vote Republican. Among Jews who call themselves "Conservative" it was 25%. Among Orthodox Jews 42%. The problem is that 80% of Jewish Americans are Reform or Conservative.

A third factor: age and sex. The younger they are, the more Jewish Americans vote on the right. But the whole community is so old that the polls count as youthful voters people under 55! As for sex, female Jewish Americans are almost all Democrats, the men more responsive to Republican principles.

The only consolation is that the voting results run counter to current fashionable lucubrations (more or less derived from the Protocols of the Elders of Zion) about the alleged Jewish American lobby. This fine lobby, in truth, and this great conspiracy, consists of shooting yourself in the foot. •

Michel Gurfinkiel is editor in chief of Valeurs Actuelles, France's leading conservative weekly newsmagazine